No Light Rail in Vancouver!

We Still Aren’t Giving Up Our Cars

Jul 31

2008

U.S. DOT data show that Americans drove almost 10 billion fewer vehicle miles in May, 2008 than in the same month of 2007. Urban driving declined by 5.8 billion vehicle miles, or about 3.4 percent. For the first five months of 2008, Americans drove 2.5 percent less than the same period in 2007, while urban driving declined by 2.1 percent.

The Wall Street Journal points out that the decline in gas purchases is leading to financial problems for highway agencies dependent on gas taxes. Naturally, transit lobbyists want more money spent on mass transit even though the latest data for transit, for March 2008, show a decline in ridership from March 2007.

What is the appropriate policy response? A month or so ago, the Antiplanner conducted an unscientific survey of readers asking how they were coping with high gas prices. Based on this survey, the Antiplanner concluded that most people were reducing driving slightly by trip chaining and eliminating unnecessary trips, while few were switching to transit or other modes.

Commuting guru Alan Pisarski agrees. “while American lifestyles are sure to undergo a shift” due to high gas prices, he says, “it will not be away from the automobile.” The biggest short-term shift, he says, will be to drive the more fuel-efficient of the multiple cars most families own. The long-term shift will be to buy more fuel-efficient cars in the future.

As it happens, a company known as Nustats conducted a scientific survey that confirms these conclusions. About two-thirds of Americans, the survey finds, have responded to high prices by driving less, but most have made only small reductions in driving. The biggest reductions have been from combining multiple errands into one trip (66%) and eliminating trips (39%). More than a fifth of people are driving the more efficient of their multiple cars.

Some 12% are working at home more and 12% are using toll roads to save time and fuel. Only 4% have taken transit on a trip they previously would have driven; only 4% have cycled, 9% have walked, and 9% have started carpooling.

If gas prices stay high, 13% more say they may try transit. But prices aren’t staying high. After rising above $4 in early June, national average gas prices fell below $4 in late July. In Oklahoma City and Wichita, prices are now down to $3.50. The Antiplanner doesn’t have a crystal ball, but I won’t be surprised if the national average falls below $3.50 sometime this fall.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: the most effective thing cities can do to save energy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions is to coordinate traffic signals. Portland, Oregon, recently coordinated signals at 135 intersections and claims it saved drivers 1.75 million gallons a year. Portland blogger Jack Bogdanski is skeptical of this claim, partly because the city financed the measure by selling carbon credits. But even a much lower energy savings would be very cost effective compared to any of Portland’s rail transit projects, most of which are net energy consumers, not savers. (Interesting that Portland is spending public money on streetcars and light rail, which don’t particularly save energy, and taking carbon-credit money for traffic signal improvements because the city doesn’t have any money to make such improvements itself.)

Beyond this, we need to switch to more user-fee based transportation systems. That means more toll roads and less dependence on gas taxes. It also means more competitive transit and fewer heavily subsidized and energy intensive rail transit projects. Until we shift our transport strategies away from subsidies to user fees, we are just going to waste more and more energy on stupid urban monuments.

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Reprinted from The Antiplanner